Ukraine Government Bonds - Yields Curve

COUNTRY • SUMMARY
UKRAINE

The Ukraine 10-Year Government Bond has an estimated 11.790% yield. Its value is not derived from the market, but it's calculated according to the yields of other available durations. Government bond yields are critical indicators of economic confidence and investor sentiment.

Ukraine Central Bank Rate stands at 13.00%, following the most recent adjustment in June 2024.

According to Standard & Poor's agency, the Ukraine credit rating is SD.

The current quotation for Ukraine 5-Years Credit Default Swap is 550.90 basis points. Correspondingly, the implied probability of default is 9.18%.

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Ukraine Yield Curve

A Yield Curve is a graph that shows the relationship between interest rates (or yields) and different maturities of debt for a specific borrower, often government bonds. It typically plots yields on the y-axis and maturities on the x-axis, ranging from short-term to long-term bonds.

The shape of the yield curve gives investors insights into market expectations for interest rates, economic growth, and inflation. A normal yield curve, where long-term rates are higher than short-term, suggests economic growth, while an inverted curve, where short-term rates are higher, can indicate an upcoming recession.

Ukraine Yield Curve
Ukraine Government Bonds
21 November 2024

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Residual
Maturity
Annualized Yield Constant Maturity Zero Coupon Price Capital
Growth
of 1 Unit
Last
Update
Last Chg 1M Chg 6M Chg 12M Last Chg 1M Chg 6M Chg 12M
1 year 37.720% -646.0 bp -1654.5 bp +1007.0 bp 72.61 +4.69 % +12.02 % -7.31 % 1.377 21 Nov
2 years 25.430% -65.0 bp -679.0 bp -12.0 bp 63.56 +1.03 % +11.12 % +0.19 % 1.573 21 Nov
3 years 23.580% -45.0 bp -991.5 bp +601.5 bp 52.99 +1.11 % +26.08 % -13.89 % 1.887 21 Nov
Last Update: 21 Nov 2024, 0:23 GMT+0

Ukraine Yield History

This table presents the historical values of the yield curve, with data points collected at the end of each year.

By analyzing these values over time, one can observe trends and shifts in economic sentiment and monetary policy that impact investor expectations about future interest rates and economic growth.

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Government Bonds Yield (%)
Spread (bp)
Period 1M 3M 6M 1Y 2Y 3Y 5Y 7Y 10Y 30Y 10Y - 2Y
Nov 2024 n.a. n.a. n.a. 37.720 25.430 23.580 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Dec 2023 n.a. n.a. n.a. 33.540 27.280 15.190 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Dec 2022 n.a. n.a. n.a. 56.255 20.585 30.000 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Dec 2021 n.a. n.a. n.a. 12.030 13.085 13.370 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Dec 2020 n.a. n.a. n.a. 11.495 12.120 12.425 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Dec 2019 n.a. n.a. n.a. 12.670 13.400 11.900 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Dec 2018 n.a. n.a. n.a. 21.000 19.330 19.010 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Dec 2017 n.a. n.a. n.a. 15.850 15.270 14.930 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

Ukraine Yield Analysis

Normally, longer-duration interest rates are higher than short-duration. So, the yield curve normally slopes upward as duration increases. For this reason, the spread (i.e. the yield difference) between a longer and a shorter bond should be positive. If not, the yield curve can be flat or inverted.

The curve convexity is measured considering some key bond durations (usually 2 years and 10 years, but also other maturities).

Internal Spread on Key Maturities:
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2Y vs 1Y -1229.0 bp Yield Curve is flat in Short-Term Maturities
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Residual
Maturity
Yield Spread vs Spread vs
Central Bank
Rate (13.00%)
1 year
2 years 25.430% 1243.0bp
1 year 37.720%
2472.0bp

Ukraine Credit Ratings

A credit rating is an assessment of the creditworthiness of a borrower (in general terms or with respect to a particular debt or financial obligation).

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Rating Agency Rating Outlook Last Update Action
Standard & Poor's SD - 5 Aug 2024 rating downgrade
Moody's Investors Service Ca - 13 Feb 2023 rating downgrade
Fitch Ratings RD - 13 Aug 2024 rating downgrade
DBRS - -

Ukraine Interest Rates

A bank rate is the interest rate at which a nation's central bank lends money to domestic banks, often in the form of very short-term loans.

Interest Rates Value
Central Bank Rate 13.00%

Ukraine Credit Default Swaps

The term credit default swap (CDS) refers to a financial derivative that allows an investor to swap or offset their credit risk with that of another investor. To swap the risk of default, the lender buys a CDS from another investor who agrees to reimburse the lender in the case the borrower defaults.

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Credit Default Swap CDS Value Var % 1W Var % 1M Var % 1Y Implied PD(*)
5 Years CDS 550.90 +1.06 % +1.84 % +32.82 % 9.18 %
(*) Implied probability of default, calculated on the hypothesis of a 40% recovery rate.
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Ukraine 10Y Bond Yield Spread

The Ukraine 10Y Government Bond has an estimated 11.790% yield.

A positive spread, marked by , means that the 10Y Bond Yield is higher than the corresponding foreign bond. Instead, a negative spread is marked by a green circle .

Click on the "Compare" button, for a report with the full comparison between the two countries, with all the available data.
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Ukraine 10Y vs Current Spread Chg 1M Chg 6M Chg 12M Compare
Countries
vs Japan 10Y 1071.8 bp -33.7 bp -3073.4 bp +263.3 bp
vs China 10Y 970.2 bp -18.9 bp -3039.5 bp +359.9 bp
vs Germany 10Y 943.7 bp -28.9 bp -3047.5 bp +322.8 bp
vs Spain 10Y 871.4 bp -28.2 bp -3043.2 bp +350.1 bp
vs France 10Y 868.4 bp -30.3 bp -3074.0 bp +303.5 bp
vs Canada 10Y 840.5 bp -35.4 bp -3041.0 bp +330.4 bp
vs Italy 10Y 821.2 bp -28.3 bp -3040.5 bp +376.8 bp
vs United States 10Y 738.9 bp -43.2 bp -3061.6 bp +301.2 bp
vs United Kingdom 10Y 732.6 bp -55.5 bp -3096.2 bp +267.9 bp
vs Australia 10Y 716.3 bp -47.7 bp -3096.5 bp +283.0 bp
vs India 10Y 485.1 bp -21.4 bp -3049.1 bp +333.7 bp
vs Brazil 10Y -108.2 bp -33.6 bp -3187.5 bp +124.3 bp
vs Russia 10Y -434.7 bp -6.8 bp -3261.7 bp -109.0 bp

Ukraine Government Bonds Prices

Price Simulation: bonds with a face value of 100, with different coupon rates.

The highlighted column refers to the zero coupon bond.
Click on for a forecast of the yield.
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Residual
Maturity
Yield Bond Price - with different Coupon Rates Fx
0% 1% 3% 5% 7% 9%
3 years 23.580% 52.99 54.98 58.97 62.95 66.94 70.93
2 years 25.430% 63.56 64.99 67.86 70.73 73.59 76.46
1 year 37.720% 72.61 73.34 74.79 76.24 77.69 79.15
Maturity Date 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
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