Uganda Government Bonds - Yields Curve

COUNTRY • SUMMARY
UGANDA

The Uganda 10-Year Government Bond currently offers a yield of 16.704%. This yield reflects the return investors can expect if they hold the bond until maturity. Government bond yields are critical indicators of economic confidence and investor sentiment.

The yield spread between Uganda 10-Year and 2-Year government bonds is 73.1 basis points (bp), reflecting the difference in yields between long-term and short-term debt.
Typically, long-term bonds carry higher yields than short-term ones.
Current observation: Normal Convexity in Long-Term vs Short-Term Maturities.

Uganda Central Bank Rate stands at 9.75%, following the most recent adjustment in October 2024.

According to Standard & Poor's agency, the Uganda credit rating is B-.

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Uganda Yield Curve

A Yield Curve is a graph that shows the relationship between interest rates (or yields) and different maturities of debt for a specific borrower, often government bonds. It typically plots yields on the y-axis and maturities on the x-axis, ranging from short-term to long-term bonds.

The shape of the yield curve gives investors insights into market expectations for interest rates, economic growth, and inflation. A normal yield curve, where long-term rates are higher than short-term, suggests economic growth, while an inverted curve, where short-term rates are higher, can indicate an upcoming recession.

Uganda Yield Curve
Uganda Government Bonds
21 November 2024

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Residual
Maturity
Annualized Yield Constant Maturity Zero Coupon Price Capital
Growth
of 1 Unit
Last
Update
Last Chg 1M Chg 6M Chg 12M Last Chg 1M Chg 6M Chg 12M
3 months 11.095% +5.1 bp +133.8 bp +130.3 bp 97.40 -0.02 % -0.31 % -0.30 % 1.026 20 Nov
6 months 13.430% +7.1 bp +100.8 bp +109.1 bp 93.89 -0.03 % -0.45 % -0.49 % 1.065 20 Nov
1 year 14.442% +8.2 bp +106.2 bp +160.2 bp 87.38 -0.07 % -0.93 % -1.40 % 1.144 20 Nov
2 years 15.973% +39.0 bp +63.8 bp n.a. 74.35 -0.67 % -1.10 % n.a. 1.344 20 Nov
3 years 16.191% +21.5 bp +65.3 bp +254.3 bp 63.75 -0.56 % -1.68 % -6.43 % 1.568 20 Nov
5 years 16.419% +32.6 bp +48.4 bp +189.5 bp 46.76 -1.39 % -2.05 % -7.88 % 2.138 20 Nov
10 years 16.704% +17.2 bp -11.6 bp +119.9 bp 21.34 -1.43 % +0.99 % -9.81 % 4.686 20 Nov
Last Update: 21 Nov 2024, 0:15 GMT+0

Uganda Yield History

This table presents the historical values of the yield curve, with data points collected at the end of each year.

By analyzing these values over time, one can observe trends and shifts in economic sentiment and monetary policy that impact investor expectations about future interest rates and economic growth.

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Government Bonds Yield (%)
Spread (bp)
Period 1M 3M 6M 1Y 2Y 3Y 5Y 7Y 10Y 30Y 10Y - 2Y
Nov 2024 n.a. 11.095 13.430 14.442 15.973 16.191 16.419 n.a. 16.704 n.a. 73.1
Dec 2023 n.a. 10.550 12.532 13.137 13.709 13.549 15.009 n.a. 16.100 n.a. 239.1
Dec 2022 n.a. 8.198 8.744 10.011 13.210 15.897 16.425 n.a. 16.865 n.a. 365.5
Dec 2021 n.a. 9.535 10.635 10.467 11.538 13.353 14.965 n.a. 15.507 n.a. 396.9
Dec 2020 n.a. 8.421 9.802 11.584 15.569 16.384 16.691 n.a. 16.912 n.a. 134.3
Dec 2019 n.a. 10.349 11.274 11.476 14.631 15.818 17.127 n.a. 16.370 n.a. 173.9
Dec 2018 n.a. 10.200 11.050 11.750 15.150 16.200 16.350 n.a. 17.000 n.a. 185.0
Dec 2017 n.a. 7.920 7.992 8.277 11.000 11.500 14.200 n.a. 14.200 n.a. 320.0
Dec 2016 n.a. 13.000 13.650 13.750 14.696 16.132 16.468 n.a. 16.993 n.a. 229.7

Uganda Yield Analysis

Normally, longer-duration interest rates are higher than short-duration. So, the yield curve normally slopes upward as duration increases. For this reason, the spread (i.e. the yield difference) between a longer and a shorter bond should be positive. If not, the yield curve can be flat or inverted.

The curve convexity is measured considering some key bond durations (usually 2 years and 10 years, but also other maturities).

Internal Spread on Key Maturities:
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2Y vs 1Y 153.1 bp Yield Curve is flat in Short-Term Maturities
5Y vs 2Y 44.6 bp Normal Convexity in Mid-Term vs Short-Term Maturities
10Y vs 2Y 73.1 bp Normal Convexity in Long-Term vs Short-Term Maturities
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Residual
Maturity
Yield Spread vs Spread vs
Central Bank
Rate (9.75%)
3 months 1 year 2 years 5 years
10 years 16.704% 695.4bp
5 years 16.419%
666.9bp
2 years 15.973%
622.3bp
1 year 14.442%
469.2bp
3 months 11.095%
134.5bp

Uganda Credit Ratings

A credit rating is an assessment of the creditworthiness of a borrower (in general terms or with respect to a particular debt or financial obligation).

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Rating Agency Rating Outlook Last Update Action
Standard & Poor's B- - 9 Oct 2023 rating downgrade
Moody's Investors Service B3 - 20 May 2024 rating downgrade
Fitch Ratings B+ - 20 Jun 2022 outlook upgrade
DBRS - -

Uganda Interest Rates

A bank rate is the interest rate at which a nation's central bank lends money to domestic banks, often in the form of very short-term loans.

Interest Rates Value
Central Bank Rate 9.75%
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Uganda 10Y Bond Yield Spread

The Uganda 10Y Government Bond has a 16.704% yield.

A positive spread, marked by , means that the 10Y Bond Yield is higher than the corresponding foreign bond. Instead, a negative spread is marked by a green circle .

Click on the values in "Current Spread" column, for the historical series of the spread.
Click on the "Compare" button, for a report with the full comparison between the two countries, with all the available data.
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Uganda 10Y vs Current Spread Chg 1M Chg 6M Chg 12M Compare
Countries
vs Japan 10Y 1563.2 bp +6.0 bp -22.0 bp +82.5 bp
vs China 10Y 1461.6 bp +20.8 bp +11.9 bp +179.1 bp
vs Germany 10Y 1435.1 bp +10.8 bp +3.9 bp +142.0 bp
vs Spain 10Y 1362.8 bp +11.5 bp +8.2 bp +169.3 bp
vs France 10Y 1359.8 bp +9.4 bp -22.6 bp +122.7 bp
vs Canada 10Y 1331.9 bp +4.3 bp +10.4 bp +149.6 bp
vs Italy 10Y 1312.6 bp +11.4 bp +10.9 bp +196.0 bp
vs United States 10Y 1230.3 bp -3.5 bp -10.2 bp +120.4 bp
vs United Kingdom 10Y 1224.0 bp -15.8 bp -44.8 bp +87.1 bp
vs Australia 10Y 1207.7 bp -8.0 bp -45.1 bp +102.2 bp
vs India 10Y 976.5 bp +18.3 bp +2.3 bp +152.9 bp
vs Brazil 10Y 383.2 bp +6.1 bp -136.1 bp -56.5 bp
vs Russia 10Y 56.7 bp +32.9 bp -210.3 bp -289.8 bp

Uganda Government Bonds Prices

Price Simulation: bonds with a face value of 100, with different coupon rates.

The highlighted column refers to the zero coupon bond.
Click on for a forecast of the yield.
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Residual
Maturity
Yield Bond Price - with different Coupon Rates Fx
0% 1% 3% 5% 7% 9%
10 years 16.704% 21.34 26.05 35.47 44.88 54.30 63.72
5 years 16.419% 46.76 50.00 56.49 62.97 69.46 75.94
3 years 16.191% 63.75 65.99 70.47 74.94 79.42 83.90
2 years 15.973% 74.35 75.96 79.17 82.38 85.59 88.80
1 year 14.442% 87.38 88.25 90.00 91.75 93.50 95.24
Maturity Date 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
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