Pakistan Government Bonds - Yields Curve

COUNTRY • SUMMARY
PAKISTAN

The Pakistan 10-Year Government Bond currently offers a yield of 12.460%. This yield reflects the return investors can expect if they hold the bond until maturity. Government bond yields are critical indicators of economic confidence and investor sentiment.

Pakistan Central Bank Rate stands at 15.00%, following the most recent adjustment in November 2024.

According to Standard & Poor's agency, the Pakistan credit rating is CCC+.

The current quotation for Pakistan 5-Years Credit Default Swap is 505.92 basis points. Correspondingly, the implied probability of default is 8.43%.

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Pakistan Yield Curve

A Yield Curve is a graph that shows the relationship between interest rates (or yields) and different maturities of debt for a specific borrower, often government bonds. It typically plots yields on the y-axis and maturities on the x-axis, ranging from short-term to long-term bonds.

The shape of the yield curve gives investors insights into market expectations for interest rates, economic growth, and inflation. A normal yield curve, where long-term rates are higher than short-term, suggests economic growth, while an inverted curve, where short-term rates are higher, can indicate an upcoming recession.

Pakistan Yield Curve
Pakistan Government Bonds
21 November 2024

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Residual
Maturity
Annualized Yield Constant Maturity Zero Coupon Price Capital
Growth
of 1 Unit
Last
Update
Last Chg 1M Chg 6M Chg 12M Last Chg 1M Chg 6M Chg 12M
3 years 13.037% +3.7 bp -416.5 bp -550.7 bp 69.24 -0.10 % +11.48 % +15.34 % 1.444 21 Nov
5 years 12.675% -4.0 bp -311.3 bp -368.0 bp 55.06 +0.16 % +14.59 % +17.42 % 1.816 21 Nov
10 years 12.460% -4.7 bp -209.7 bp -315.2 bp 30.90 +0.39 % +20.28 % +31.83 % 3.235 21 Nov
14 years 12.348% -1.0 bp -212.1 bp -289.7 bp 19.59 +0.10 % +29.91 % +42.78 % 5.104 21 Nov
20 years 12.324% +0.1 bp -212.7 bp -290.7 bp 9.78 -0.10 % +45.54 % +66.61 % 10.220 21 Nov
Last Update: 21 Nov 2024, 6:15 GMT+0

Pakistan Yield History

This table presents the historical values of the yield curve, with data points collected at the end of each year.

By analyzing these values over time, one can observe trends and shifts in economic sentiment and monetary policy that impact investor expectations about future interest rates and economic growth.

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Government Bonds Yield (%)
Spread (bp)
Period 1M 3M 6M 1Y 2Y 3Y 5Y 7Y 10Y 30Y 10Y - 2Y
Nov 2024 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 13.037 12.675 n.a. 12.460 n.a. n.a.
Dec 2023 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 18.273 16.491 n.a. 15.597 n.a. n.a.
Dec 2022 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 16.292 15.085 n.a. 14.203 n.a. n.a.
Dec 2021 n.a. 7.300 7.570 7.900 n.a. 11.679 11.653 n.a. 11.794 n.a. n.a.
Dec 2020 n.a. 7.150 7.250 7.400 n.a. 7.831 8.728 n.a. 10.096 n.a. n.a.
Dec 2019 n.a. 13.450 13.350 13.150 n.a. 12.293 11.345 n.a. 11.248 n.a. n.a.
Dec 2018 n.a. 10.350 10.600 11.000 n.a. 12.247 12.700 n.a. 13.151 n.a. n.a.
Dec 2017 n.a. 5.990 6.010 6.030 n.a. 6.482 7.550 n.a. 7.931 n.a. n.a.
Dec 2016 n.a. 5.990 6.000 6.080 n.a. 6.331 6.721 n.a. 8.026 11.000 n.a.

Pakistan Yield Analysis

Normally, longer-duration interest rates are higher than short-duration. So, the yield curve normally slopes upward as duration increases. For this reason, the spread (i.e. the yield difference) between a longer and a shorter bond should be positive. If not, the yield curve can be flat or inverted.

The curve convexity is measured considering some key bond durations (usually 2 years and 10 years, but also other maturities).

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Residual
Maturity
Yield Spread vs Spread vs
Central Bank
Rate (15.00%)
5 years
10 years 12.460% -254.0bp
5 years 12.675%
-232.5bp

Pakistan Credit Ratings

A credit rating is an assessment of the creditworthiness of a borrower (in general terms or with respect to a particular debt or financial obligation).

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Rating Agency Rating Outlook Last Update Action
Standard & Poor's CCC+ - 22 Dec 2022 rating downgrade
Moody's Investors Service Caa2 positive 28 Aug 2024 rating upgrade
Fitch Ratings CCC+ - 29 Jul 2024 rating upgrade
DBRS - -

Pakistan Interest Rates

A bank rate is the interest rate at which a nation's central bank lends money to domestic banks, often in the form of very short-term loans.

Interest Rates Value
Central Bank Rate 15.00%

Pakistan Credit Default Swaps

The term credit default swap (CDS) refers to a financial derivative that allows an investor to swap or offset their credit risk with that of another investor. To swap the risk of default, the lender buys a CDS from another investor who agrees to reimburse the lender in the case the borrower defaults.

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Credit Default Swap CDS Value Var % 1W Var % 1M Var % 1Y Implied PD(*)
5 Years CDS 505.92 +4.74 % +9.47 % +12.08 % 8.43 %
(*) Implied probability of default, calculated on the hypothesis of a 40% recovery rate.
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Pakistan 10Y Bond Yield Spread

The Pakistan 10Y Government Bond has a 12.460% yield.

A positive spread, marked by , means that the 10Y Bond Yield is higher than the corresponding foreign bond. Instead, a negative spread is marked by a green circle .

Click on the values in "Current Spread" column, for the historical series of the spread.
Click on the "Compare" button, for a report with the full comparison between the two countries, with all the available data.
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Pakistan 10Y vs Current Spread Chg 1M Chg 6M Chg 12M Compare
Countries
vs Japan 10Y 1138.8 bp -15.9 bp -220.1 bp -352.6 bp
vs China 10Y 1037.2 bp -1.1 bp -186.2 bp -256.0 bp
vs Germany 10Y 1010.7 bp -11.1 bp -194.2 bp -293.1 bp
vs Spain 10Y 938.4 bp -10.4 bp -189.9 bp -265.8 bp
vs France 10Y 935.4 bp -12.5 bp -220.7 bp -312.4 bp
vs Canada 10Y 907.5 bp -17.6 bp -187.7 bp -285.5 bp
vs Italy 10Y 888.2 bp -10.5 bp -187.2 bp -239.1 bp
vs United States 10Y 805.9 bp -25.4 bp -208.3 bp -314.7 bp
vs United Kingdom 10Y 799.6 bp -37.7 bp -242.9 bp -348.0 bp
vs Australia 10Y 783.3 bp -29.9 bp -243.2 bp -332.9 bp
vs India 10Y 552.1 bp -3.6 bp -195.8 bp -282.2 bp
vs Brazil 10Y -41.2 bp -15.8 bp -334.2 bp -491.6 bp
vs Russia 10Y -367.7 bp +11.0 bp -408.4 bp -724.9 bp

Pakistan Government Bonds Prices

Price Simulation: bonds with a face value of 100, with different coupon rates.

The highlighted column refers to the zero coupon bond.
Click on for a forecast of the yield.
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Residual
Maturity
Yield Bond Price - with different Coupon Rates Fx
0% 1% 3% 5% 7% 9%
20 years 12.324% 9.78 17.11 31.75 46.39 61.03 75.67
14 years 12.348% 19.59 26.10 39.13 52.15 65.17 78.20
10 years 12.460% 30.90 36.45 47.54 58.63 69.72 80.81
5 years 12.675% 55.06 58.61 65.70 72.79 79.88 86.97
3 years 13.037% 69.24 71.60 76.32 81.04 85.75 90.47
Maturity Date 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
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