Nigeria Government Bonds - Yields Curve

COUNTRY • SUMMARY
NIGERIA

The Nigeria 10-Year Government Bond currently offers a yield of 20.819%. This yield reflects the return investors can expect if they hold the bond until maturity. Government bond yields are critical indicators of economic confidence and investor sentiment.

The yield spread between Nigeria 10-Year and 2-Year government bonds is -511 basis points (bp), reflecting the difference in yields between long-term and short-term debt.
Typically, long-term bonds carry higher yields than short-term ones.
Current observation: Yield Curve is inverted in Long-Term vs Short-Term Maturities.

Nigeria Central Bank Rate stands at 27.25%, following the most recent adjustment in September 2024.

According to Standard & Poor's agency, the Nigeria credit rating is B-.

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Nigeria Yield Curve

A Yield Curve is a graph that shows the relationship between interest rates (or yields) and different maturities of debt for a specific borrower, often government bonds. It typically plots yields on the y-axis and maturities on the x-axis, ranging from short-term to long-term bonds.

The shape of the yield curve gives investors insights into market expectations for interest rates, economic growth, and inflation. A normal yield curve, where long-term rates are higher than short-term, suggests economic growth, while an inverted curve, where short-term rates are higher, can indicate an upcoming recession.

Nigeria Yield Curve
Nigeria Government Bonds
21 November 2024

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Residual
Maturity
Annualized Yield Constant Maturity Zero Coupon Price Capital
Growth
of 1 Unit
Last
Update
Last Chg 1M Chg 6M Chg 12M Last Chg 1M Chg 6M Chg 12M
2 years 25.929% +52.4 bp +661.3 bp +1081.0 bp 63.06 -0.83 % -10.22 % -16.43 % 1.585 19 Nov
3 years 20.164% +49.7 bp +209.7 bp +481.1 bp 57.63 -1.23 % -5.15 % -11.54 % 1.735 19 Nov
4 years 19.963% +115.8 bp +149.1 bp +451.6 bp 48.28 -3.82 % -4.89 % -14.23 % 2.071 19 Nov
5 years 20.076% +8.0 bp +141.9 bp +480.3 bp 40.06 -0.32 % -5.76 % -18.46 % 2.496 19 Nov
7 years 19.771% -3.3 bp +96.0 bp +443.8 bp 28.28 +0.18 % -5.48 % -23.24 % 3.535 19 Nov
10 years 20.819% -41.1 bp +145.6 bp +536.8 bp 15.09 +3.50 % -11.39 % -36.52 % 6.627 19 Nov
20 years 18.714% +99.4 bp +6.8 bp +230.7 bp 3.24 -15.40 % -0.92 % -32.36 % 30.905 19 Nov
30 years 16.995% -9.0 bp -73.0 bp -61.7 bp 0.90 +2.27 % +20.00 % +16.88 % 110.922 19 Nov
Last Update: 21 Nov 2024, 0:15 GMT+0

Nigeria Yield History

This table presents the historical values of the yield curve, with data points collected at the end of each year.

By analyzing these values over time, one can observe trends and shifts in economic sentiment and monetary policy that impact investor expectations about future interest rates and economic growth.

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Government Bonds Yield (%)
Spread (bp)
Period 1M 3M 6M 1Y 2Y 3Y 5Y 7Y 10Y 30Y 10Y - 2Y
Nov 2024 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 25.929 20.164 20.076 19.771 20.819 16.995 -511.0
Dec 2023 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 12.135 13.303 13.802 14.506 14.386 15.749 225.1
Dec 2022 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 11.703 n.a. 13.924 13.988 13.819 n.a. 211.6
Dec 2021 n.a. 2.802 4.381 5.488 7.487 n.a. n.a. 12.432 12.605 n.a. 511.8
Dec 2020 n.a. 0.335 0.376 0.632 2.303 n.a. n.a. 6.483 7.261 n.a. 495.8
Dec 2019 n.a. 12.856 13.207 4.736 8.170 n.a. n.a. 11.095 11.563 n.a. 339.3
Dec 2018 n.a. 15.658 16.477 17.385 15.297 n.a. 14.727 14.568 15.504 n.a. 20.7
Dec 2017 n.a. 13.812 15.821 17.358 14.288 n.a. 14.727 14.111 14.121 n.a. -16.7

Nigeria Yield Analysis

Normally, longer-duration interest rates are higher than short-duration. So, the yield curve normally slopes upward as duration increases. For this reason, the spread (i.e. the yield difference) between a longer and a shorter bond should be positive. If not, the yield curve can be flat or inverted.

The curve convexity is measured considering some key bond durations (usually 2 years and 10 years, but also other maturities).

Internal Spread on Key Maturities:
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5Y vs 2Y -585.3 bp Yield Curve is inverted in Mid-Term vs Short-Term Maturities
10Y vs 2Y -511.0 bp Yield Curve is inverted in Long-Term vs Short-Term Maturities
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Residual
Maturity
Yield Spread vs Spread vs
Central Bank
Rate (27.25%)
2 years 5 years 10 years
30 years 16.995% -1025.5bp
10 years 20.819%
-643.1bp
5 years 20.076%
-717.4bp
2 years 25.929%
-132.1bp

Nigeria Credit Ratings

A credit rating is an assessment of the creditworthiness of a borrower (in general terms or with respect to a particular debt or financial obligation).

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Rating Agency Rating Outlook Last Update Action
Standard & Poor's B- - 7 Aug 2023 outlook upgrade
Moody's Investors Service Caa1 positive 11 Dec 2023 outlook upgrade
Fitch Ratings B- positive 1 Nov 2024 outlook upgrade
DBRS - -

Nigeria Interest Rates

A bank rate is the interest rate at which a nation's central bank lends money to domestic banks, often in the form of very short-term loans.

Interest Rates Value
Central Bank Rate 27.25%
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Nigeria 10Y Bond Yield Spread

The Nigeria 10Y Government Bond has a 20.819% yield.

A positive spread, marked by , means that the 10Y Bond Yield is higher than the corresponding foreign bond. Instead, a negative spread is marked by a green circle .

Click on the values in "Current Spread" column, for the historical series of the spread.
Click on the "Compare" button, for a report with the full comparison between the two countries, with all the available data.
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Nigeria 10Y vs Current Spread Chg 1M Chg 6M Chg 12M Compare
Countries
vs Japan 10Y 1974.7 bp -52.3 bp +135.2 bp +499.4 bp
vs China 10Y 1873.1 bp -37.5 bp +169.1 bp +596.0 bp
vs Germany 10Y 1846.6 bp -47.5 bp +161.1 bp +558.9 bp
vs Spain 10Y 1774.3 bp -46.8 bp +165.4 bp +586.2 bp
vs France 10Y 1771.3 bp -48.9 bp +134.6 bp +539.6 bp
vs Canada 10Y 1743.4 bp -54.0 bp +167.6 bp +566.5 bp
vs Italy 10Y 1724.1 bp -46.9 bp +168.1 bp +612.9 bp
vs United States 10Y 1641.8 bp -61.8 bp +147.0 bp +537.3 bp
vs United Kingdom 10Y 1635.5 bp -74.1 bp +112.4 bp +504.0 bp
vs Australia 10Y 1619.2 bp -66.3 bp +112.1 bp +519.1 bp
vs India 10Y 1388.0 bp -40.0 bp +159.5 bp +569.8 bp
vs Brazil 10Y 794.7 bp -52.2 bp +21.1 bp +360.4 bp
vs Russia 10Y 468.2 bp -25.4 bp -53.1 bp +127.1 bp

Nigeria Government Bonds Prices

Price Simulation: bonds with a face value of 100, with different coupon rates.

The highlighted column refers to the zero coupon bond.
Click on for a forecast of the yield.
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Residual
Maturity
Yield Bond Price - with different Coupon Rates Fx
0% 1% 3% 5% 7% 9%
30 years 16.995% 0.90 6.73 18.39 30.06 41.72 53.38
20 years 18.714% 3.24 8.41 18.75 29.09 39.43 49.77
10 years 20.819% 15.09 19.17 27.32 35.48 43.64 51.80
7 years 19.771% 28.28 31.91 39.17 46.42 53.68 60.93
5 years 20.076% 40.06 43.05 49.02 54.99 60.96 66.93
4 years 19.963% 48.28 50.88 56.06 61.24 66.42 71.60
3 years 20.164% 57.63 59.73 63.94 68.14 72.34 76.54
2 years 25.929% 63.06 64.48 67.33 70.18 73.03 75.88
Maturity Date 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
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