Mexico Government Bonds - Yields Curve

COUNTRY • SUMMARY
MEXICO

The Mexico 10-Year Government Bond currently offers a yield of 10.185%. This yield reflects the return investors can expect if they hold the bond until maturity. Government bond yields are critical indicators of economic confidence and investor sentiment.

Mexico Central Bank Rate stands at 10.25%, following the most recent adjustment in November 2024.

According to Standard & Poor's agency, the Mexico credit rating is BBB.

The current quotation for Mexico 5-Years Credit Default Swap is 126.15 basis points. Correspondingly, the implied probability of default is 2.10%.

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Mexico Yield Curve

A Yield Curve is a graph that shows the relationship between interest rates (or yields) and different maturities of debt for a specific borrower, often government bonds. It typically plots yields on the y-axis and maturities on the x-axis, ranging from short-term to long-term bonds.

The shape of the yield curve gives investors insights into market expectations for interest rates, economic growth, and inflation. A normal yield curve, where long-term rates are higher than short-term, suggests economic growth, while an inverted curve, where short-term rates are higher, can indicate an upcoming recession.

Mexico Yield Curve
Mexico Government Bonds
21 November 2024

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Residual
Maturity
Annualized Yield Constant Maturity Zero Coupon Price Capital
Growth
of 1 Unit
Last
Update
Last Chg 1M Chg 6M Chg 12M Last Chg 1M Chg 6M Chg 12M
1 month 10.420% 0.0 bp -115.6 bp -105.6 bp 99.18 0.00 % +0.09 % +0.08 % 1.008 15 Nov
3 months 10.300% -20.0 bp -131.3 bp -155.2 bp 97.58 +0.05 % +0.30 % +0.35 % 1.024 15 Nov
6 months 10.330% -6.0 bp -123.4 bp -147.7 bp 95.20 +0.02 % +0.55 % +0.67 % 1.050 15 Nov
9 months 10.380% -1.0 bp -106.3 bp -122.4 bp 92.86 +0.01 % +0.72 % +0.83 % 1.076 15 Nov
1 year 10.350% -9.0 bp -95.9 bp -101.3 bp 90.62 +0.08 % +0.87 % +0.91 % 1.103 15 Nov
3 years 9.903% -29.4 bp -55.3 bp -33.4 bp 75.33 +0.80 % +1.52 % +0.91 % 1.327 20 Nov
5 years 10.013% -26.4 bp -16.1 bp -6.8 bp 62.06 +1.21 % +0.75 % +0.32 % 1.611 20 Nov
7 years 9.991% -26.2 bp -12.9 bp +19.2 bp 51.35 +1.68 % +0.82 % -1.21 % 1.947 20 Nov
10 years 10.185% -25.4 bp +17.4 bp +33.1 bp 37.91 +2.32 % -1.58 % -2.97 % 2.637 20 Nov
15 years 10.323% -24.7 bp +21.3 bp +37.3 bp 22.91 +3.43 % -2.84 % -4.94 % 4.365 20 Nov
20 years 10.490% -29.0 bp +27.5 bp +52.1 bp 13.60 +5.34 % -4.90 % -9.03 % 7.352 20 Nov
30 years 10.486% -29.8 bp +32.4 bp +54.0 bp 5.02 +8.42 % -8.39 % -13.75 % 19.916 20 Nov
Last Update: 21 Nov 2024, 0:15 GMT+0

Mexico Yield History

This table presents the historical values of the yield curve, with data points collected at the end of each year.

By analyzing these values over time, one can observe trends and shifts in economic sentiment and monetary policy that impact investor expectations about future interest rates and economic growth.

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Government Bonds Yield (%)
Spread (bp)
Period 1M 3M 6M 1Y 2Y 3Y 5Y 7Y 10Y 30Y 10Y - 2Y
Nov 2024 10.420 10.300 10.330 10.350 n.a. 9.903 10.013 9.991 10.185 10.486 n.a.
Dec 2023 11.920 11.723 11.648 11.158 n.a. 9.859 9.700 9.295 9.288 9.434 n.a.
Dec 2022 10.746 11.210 11.149 10.924 n.a. 10.286 9.550 9.403 9.347 9.428 n.a.
Dec 2021 5.626 6.005 6.387 6.919 n.a. 7.465 7.653 7.701 7.815 8.343 n.a.
Dec 2020 4.290 4.391 4.355 4.291 n.a. 4.479 4.611 5.114 5.417 6.766 n.a.
Dec 2019 7.493 7.507 7.392 7.198 n.a. 6.964 6.950 7.044 7.067 7.432 n.a.
Dec 2018 8.210 8.300 8.590 8.660 n.a. 8.560 8.600 8.670 8.710 8.960 n.a.
Dec 2017 7.280 7.370 7.520 7.600 n.a. 7.580 7.680 7.620 7.720 7.890 n.a.
Dec 2016 5.790 5.970 6.260 6.410 n.a. 6.960 7.190 7.320 7.450 7.820 n.a.
Dec 2015 3.030 3.280 3.540 3.670 n.a. 4.840 5.720 5.946 6.270 6.980 n.a.

Mexico Yield Analysis

Normally, longer-duration interest rates are higher than short-duration. So, the yield curve normally slopes upward as duration increases. For this reason, the spread (i.e. the yield difference) between a longer and a shorter bond should be positive. If not, the yield curve can be flat or inverted.

The curve convexity is measured considering some key bond durations (usually 2 years and 10 years, but also other maturities).

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Residual
Maturity
Yield Spread vs Spread vs
Central Bank
Rate (10.25%)
3 months 1 year 5 years 10 years
30 years 10.486% 23.6bp
10 years 10.185%
-6.5bp
5 years 10.013%
-23.7bp
1 year 10.350%
10.0bp
3 months 10.300%
5.0bp

Mexico Credit Ratings

A credit rating is an assessment of the creditworthiness of a borrower (in general terms or with respect to a particular debt or financial obligation).

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Rating Agency Rating Outlook Last Update Action
Standard & Poor's BBB - 7 Jul 2022 outlook upgrade
Moody's Investors Service Baa2 negative 15 Nov 2024 outlook downgrade
Fitch Ratings BBB- - 16 Apr 2020 rating downgrade
DBRS BBB - 10 May 2021 outlook upgrade

Mexico Interest Rates

A bank rate is the interest rate at which a nation's central bank lends money to domestic banks, often in the form of very short-term loans.

Interest Rates Value
Central Bank Rate 10.25%

Mexico Credit Default Swaps

The term credit default swap (CDS) refers to a financial derivative that allows an investor to swap or offset their credit risk with that of another investor. To swap the risk of default, the lender buys a CDS from another investor who agrees to reimburse the lender in the case the borrower defaults.

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Credit Default Swap CDS Value Var % 1W Var % 1M Var % 1Y Implied PD(*)
5 Years CDS 126.15 +0.33 % +3.62 % +28.70 % 2.10 %
(*) Implied probability of default, calculated on the hypothesis of a 40% recovery rate.
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Mexico 10Y Bond Yield Spread

The Mexico 10Y Government Bond has a 10.185% yield.

A positive spread, marked by , means that the 10Y Bond Yield is higher than the corresponding foreign bond. Instead, a negative spread is marked by a green circle .

Click on the values in "Current Spread" column, for the historical series of the spread.
Click on the "Compare" button, for a report with the full comparison between the two countries, with all the available data.
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Mexico 10Y vs Current Spread Chg 1M Chg 6M Chg 12M Compare
Countries
vs Japan 10Y 911.3 bp -36.6 bp +7.0 bp -4.3 bp
vs China 10Y 809.7 bp -21.8 bp +40.9 bp +92.3 bp
vs Germany 10Y 783.2 bp -31.8 bp +32.9 bp +55.2 bp
vs Spain 10Y 710.9 bp -31.1 bp +37.2 bp +82.5 bp
vs France 10Y 707.9 bp -33.2 bp +6.4 bp +35.9 bp
vs Canada 10Y 680.0 bp -38.3 bp +39.4 bp +62.8 bp
vs Italy 10Y 660.7 bp -31.2 bp +39.9 bp +109.2 bp
vs United States 10Y 578.4 bp -46.1 bp +18.8 bp +33.6 bp
vs United Kingdom 10Y 572.1 bp -58.4 bp -15.8 bp +0.3 bp
vs Australia 10Y 555.8 bp -50.6 bp -16.1 bp +15.4 bp
vs India 10Y 324.6 bp -24.3 bp +31.3 bp +66.1 bp
vs Brazil 10Y -268.7 bp -36.5 bp -107.1 bp -143.3 bp
vs Russia 10Y -595.2 bp -9.7 bp -181.3 bp -376.6 bp

Mexico Government Bonds Prices

Price Simulation: bonds with a face value of 100, with different coupon rates.

The highlighted column refers to the zero coupon bond.
Click on for a forecast of the yield.
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Residual
Maturity
Yield Bond Price - with different Coupon Rates Fx
0% 1% 3% 5% 7% 9%
30 years 10.486% 5.02 14.08 32.19 50.31 68.42 86.54
20 years 10.490% 13.60 21.84 38.31 54.78 71.25 87.73
15 years 10.323% 22.91 30.38 45.31 60.25 75.18 90.12
10 years 10.185% 37.91 44.01 56.20 68.39 80.58 92.78
7 years 9.991% 51.35 56.22 65.95 75.69 85.43 95.17
5 years 10.013% 62.06 65.84 73.42 81.00 88.58 96.16
3 years 9.903% 75.33 77.82 82.80 87.79 92.77 97.75
1 year 10.350% 90.62 91.53 93.34 95.15 96.96 98.78
Maturity Date 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
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