Indonesia Government Bonds - Yields Curve

COUNTRY • SUMMARY
INDONESIA

The Indonesia 10-Year Government Bond currently offers a yield of 7.018%. This yield reflects the return investors can expect if they hold the bond until maturity. Government bond yields are critical indicators of economic confidence and investor sentiment.

Indonesia Central Bank Rate stands at 6.00%, following the most recent adjustment in September 2024.

According to Standard & Poor's agency, the Indonesia credit rating is BBB.

The current quotation for Indonesia 5-Years Credit Default Swap is 73.91 basis points. Correspondingly, the implied probability of default is 1.23%.

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Indonesia Yield Curve

A Yield Curve is a graph that shows the relationship between interest rates (or yields) and different maturities of debt for a specific borrower, often government bonds. It typically plots yields on the y-axis and maturities on the x-axis, ranging from short-term to long-term bonds.

The shape of the yield curve gives investors insights into market expectations for interest rates, economic growth, and inflation. A normal yield curve, where long-term rates are higher than short-term, suggests economic growth, while an inverted curve, where short-term rates are higher, can indicate an upcoming recession.

Indonesia Yield Curve
Indonesia Government Bonds
21 November 2024

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Residual
Maturity
Annualized Yield Constant Maturity Zero Coupon Price Capital
Growth
of 1 Unit
Last
Update
Last Chg 1M Chg 6M Chg 12M Last Chg 1M Chg 6M Chg 12M
1 month 6.361% +29.8 bp +66.6 bp -10.2 bp 99.49 -0.02 % -0.05 % +0.01 % 1.005 21 Nov
3 months 6.397% +32.7 bp +53.9 bp -6.9 bp 98.46 -0.08 % -0.13 % +0.01 % 1.015 21 Nov
6 months 6.401% +23.8 bp +29.3 bp -9.2 bp 96.95 -0.10 % -0.13 % +0.05 % 1.031 21 Nov
1 year 6.659% +55.6 bp +4.6 bp +24.6 bp 93.76 -0.52 % -0.04 % -0.22 % 1.066 21 Nov
3 years 6.346% +1.3 bp -49.4 bp -41.8 bp 83.15 -0.04 % +1.40 % +1.19 % 1.202 21 Nov
5 years 6.818% +34.1 bp -14.2 bp +9.3 bp 71.91 -1.59 % +0.67 % -0.43 % 1.390 21 Nov
10 years 7.018% +37.7 bp +4.3 bp +26.7 bp 50.75 -3.46 % -0.39 % -2.46 % 1.970 21 Nov
15 years 7.111% +17.6 bp +5.7 bp +14.2 bp 35.69 -2.43 % -0.78 % -1.95 % 2.802 21 Nov
20 years 7.165% +28.6 bp +8.2 bp +16.8 bp 25.06 -5.18 % -1.49 % -3.09 % 3.990 21 Nov
25 years 7.127% +18.7 bp +2.7 bp -2.9 bp 17.89 -4.28 % -0.61 % +0.68 % 5.590 21 Nov
30 years 7.027% +9.5 bp +0.6 bp -11.7 bp 13.04 -2.61 % -0.15 % +3.33 % 7.670 21 Nov
Last Update: 21 Nov 2024, 6:15 GMT+0

Indonesia Yield History

This table presents the historical values of the yield curve, with data points collected at the end of each year.

By analyzing these values over time, one can observe trends and shifts in economic sentiment and monetary policy that impact investor expectations about future interest rates and economic growth.

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Government Bonds Yield (%)
Spread (bp)
Period 1M 3M 6M 1Y 2Y 3Y 5Y 7Y 10Y 30Y 10Y - 2Y
Nov 2024 6.361 6.397 6.401 6.659 n.a. 6.346 6.818 n.a. 7.018 7.027 n.a.
Dec 2023 6.549 6.441 6.569 6.489 n.a. 6.459 6.507 n.a. 6.563 6.981 n.a.
Dec 2022 4.498 5.240 5.127 5.604 n.a. 6.458 6.232 n.a. 7.036 7.392 n.a.
Dec 2021 3.234 3.253 3.348 3.661 n.a. 4.375 5.127 n.a. 6.445 7.260 n.a.
Dec 2020 3.191 3.253 3.460 4.169 n.a. 4.934 5.227 n.a. 5.984 7.037 n.a.
Dec 2019 4.761 4.865 5.029 4.956 n.a. 6.226 6.444 n.a. 7.149 7.758 n.a.
Dec 2018 6.100 6.145 6.334 5.875 n.a. 7.666 7.845 n.a. 7.997 8.772 n.a.
Dec 2017 4.500 4.975 5.000 5.407 n.a. 5.704 5.926 n.a. 6.298 7.452 n.a.
Dec 2016 n.a. n.a. 6.300 7.463 n.a. 7.541 7.587 n.a. 7.941 8.602 n.a.

Indonesia Yield Analysis

Normally, longer-duration interest rates are higher than short-duration. So, the yield curve normally slopes upward as duration increases. For this reason, the spread (i.e. the yield difference) between a longer and a shorter bond should be positive. If not, the yield curve can be flat or inverted.

The curve convexity is measured considering some key bond durations (usually 2 years and 10 years, but also other maturities).

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Residual
Maturity
Yield Spread vs Spread vs
Central Bank
Rate (6.00%)
3 months 1 year 5 years 10 years
30 years 7.027% 102.7bp
10 years 7.018%
101.8bp
5 years 6.818%
81.8bp
1 year 6.659%
65.9bp
3 months 6.397%
39.7bp

Indonesia Credit Ratings

A credit rating is an assessment of the creditworthiness of a borrower (in general terms or with respect to a particular debt or financial obligation).

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Rating Agency Rating Outlook Last Update Action
Standard & Poor's BBB - 27 Apr 2022 outlook upgrade
Moody's Investors Service Baa2 - 13 Apr 2018 rating upgrade
Fitch Ratings BBB - 21 Dec 2017 rating upgrade
DBRS - -

Indonesia Interest Rates

A bank rate is the interest rate at which a nation's central bank lends money to domestic banks, often in the form of very short-term loans.

Interest Rates Value
Central Bank Rate 6.00%

Indonesia Credit Default Swaps

The term credit default swap (CDS) refers to a financial derivative that allows an investor to swap or offset their credit risk with that of another investor. To swap the risk of default, the lender buys a CDS from another investor who agrees to reimburse the lender in the case the borrower defaults.

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Credit Default Swap CDS Value Var % 1W Var % 1M Var % 1Y Implied PD(*)
5 Years CDS 73.91 +4.39 % +7.92 % +1.46 % 1.23 %
(*) Implied probability of default, calculated on the hypothesis of a 40% recovery rate.
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Indonesia 10Y Bond Yield Spread

The Indonesia 10Y Government Bond has a 7.018% yield.

A positive spread, marked by , means that the 10Y Bond Yield is higher than the corresponding foreign bond. Instead, a negative spread is marked by a green circle .

Click on the values in "Current Spread" column, for the historical series of the spread.
Click on the "Compare" button, for a report with the full comparison between the two countries, with all the available data.
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Indonesia 10Y vs Current Spread Chg 1M Chg 6M Chg 12M Compare
Countries
vs Japan 10Y 594.6 bp +26.5 bp -6.1 bp -10.7 bp
vs China 10Y 493.0 bp +41.3 bp +27.8 bp +85.9 bp
vs Germany 10Y 466.5 bp +31.3 bp +19.8 bp +48.8 bp
vs Spain 10Y 394.2 bp +32.0 bp +24.1 bp +76.1 bp
vs France 10Y 391.2 bp +29.9 bp -6.7 bp +29.5 bp
vs Canada 10Y 363.3 bp +24.8 bp +26.3 bp +56.4 bp
vs Italy 10Y 344.0 bp +31.9 bp +26.8 bp +102.8 bp
vs United States 10Y 261.7 bp +17.0 bp +5.7 bp +27.2 bp
vs United Kingdom 10Y 255.4 bp +4.7 bp -28.9 bp -6.1 bp
vs Australia 10Y 239.1 bp +12.5 bp -29.2 bp +9.0 bp
vs India 10Y 7.9 bp +38.8 bp +18.2 bp +59.7 bp
vs Brazil 10Y -585.4 bp +26.6 bp -120.2 bp -149.7 bp
vs Russia 10Y -911.9 bp +53.4 bp -194.4 bp -383.0 bp

Indonesia Government Bonds Prices

Price Simulation: bonds with a face value of 100, with different coupon rates.

The highlighted column refers to the zero coupon bond.
Click on for a forecast of the yield.
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Residual
Maturity
Yield Bond Price - with different Coupon Rates Fx
0% 1% 3% 5% 7% 9%
30 years 7.027% 13.04 25.41 50.16 74.91 99.67 124.42
25 years 7.127% 17.89 29.41 52.45 75.49 98.54 121.58
20 years 7.165% 25.06 35.52 56.44 77.36 98.27 119.19
15 years 7.111% 35.69 44.73 62.82 80.91 99.00 117.08
10 years 7.018% 50.75 57.77 71.80 85.84 99.87 113.91
5 years 6.818% 71.91 76.03 84.27 92.51 100.75 108.99
3 years 6.346% 83.15 85.80 91.11 96.43 101.74 107.05
1 year 6.659% 93.76 94.69 96.57 98.44 100.32 102.19
Maturity Date 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
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