Bahrain Government Bonds - Yields Curve

COUNTRY • SUMMARY
BAHRAIN

The Bahrain 10-Year Government Bond has an estimated 6.169% yield. Its value is not derived from the market, but it's calculated according to the yields of other available durations. Government bond yields are critical indicators of economic confidence and investor sentiment.

Bahrain Central Bank Rate stands at 5.50%, following the most recent adjustment in November 2024.

According to Standard & Poor's agency, the Bahrain credit rating is B+.

The current quotation for Bahrain 5-Years Credit Default Swap is 255.00 basis points. Correspondingly, the implied probability of default is 4.25%.

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Bahrain Yield Curve

A Yield Curve is a graph that shows the relationship between interest rates (or yields) and different maturities of debt for a specific borrower, often government bonds. It typically plots yields on the y-axis and maturities on the x-axis, ranging from short-term to long-term bonds.

The shape of the yield curve gives investors insights into market expectations for interest rates, economic growth, and inflation. A normal yield curve, where long-term rates are higher than short-term, suggests economic growth, while an inverted curve, where short-term rates are higher, can indicate an upcoming recession.

Bahrain Yield Curve
Bahrain Government Bonds
21 November 2024

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Residual
Maturity
Annualized Yield Constant Maturity Zero Coupon Price Capital
Growth
of 1 Unit
Last
Update
Last Chg 1M Chg 6M Chg 12M Last Chg 1M Chg 6M Chg 12M
3 months 5.722% -23.2 bp -31.4 bp -62.5 bp 98.62 +0.06 % +0.07 % +0.15 % 1.014 20 Nov
6 months 5.762% -7.0 bp -27.4 bp -63.0 bp 97.24 +0.03 % +0.13 % +0.30 % 1.028 20 Nov
9 months 5.643% +2.2 bp -43.6 bp -78.4 bp 95.97 -0.01 % +0.31 % +0.56 % 1.042 20 Nov
1 year 5.669% +0.2 bp -42.0 bp -79.4 bp 94.64 0.00 % +0.40 % +0.76 % 1.056 20 Nov
2 years 5.702% +3.1 bp -34.8 bp -74.7 bp 89.50 -0.06 % +0.65 % +1.42 % 1.117 20 Nov
5 years 5.877% +19.5 bp -21.6 bp -66.6 bp 75.16 -0.92 % +1.02 % +3.19 % 1.330 20 Nov
Last Update: 21 Nov 2024, 0:15 GMT+0

Bahrain Yield History

This table presents the historical values of the yield curve, with data points collected at the end of each year.

By analyzing these values over time, one can observe trends and shifts in economic sentiment and monetary policy that impact investor expectations about future interest rates and economic growth.

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Government Bonds Yield (%)
Spread (bp)
Period 1M 3M 6M 1Y 2Y 3Y 5Y 7Y 10Y 30Y 10Y - 2Y
Nov 2024 n.a. 5.722 5.762 5.669 5.702 n.a. 5.877 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Dec 2023 n.a. 6.364 6.351 6.317 6.148 n.a. 5.904 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Dec 2022 n.a. 5.860 6.185 6.079 5.865 n.a. 5.790 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Dec 2021 n.a. 1.528 1.701 1.728 2.283 n.a. 3.682 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Dec 2020 n.a. 2.177 2.519 2.677 2.377 n.a. 3.776 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Dec 2019 n.a. 2.774 2.789 2.911 2.942 n.a. 4.607 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Dec 2018 n.a. 4.421 4.701 5.090 5.937 n.a. 5.719 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Dec 2017 n.a. 2.399 2.500 2.900 4.200 n.a. 5.030 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

Bahrain Yield Analysis

Normally, longer-duration interest rates are higher than short-duration. So, the yield curve normally slopes upward as duration increases. For this reason, the spread (i.e. the yield difference) between a longer and a shorter bond should be positive. If not, the yield curve can be flat or inverted.

The curve convexity is measured considering some key bond durations (usually 2 years and 10 years, but also other maturities).

Internal Spread on Key Maturities:
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2Y vs 1Y 3.3 bp Yield Curve is flat in Short-Term Maturities
5Y vs 2Y 17.5 bp Normal Convexity in Mid-Term vs Short-Term Maturities
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Residual
Maturity
Yield Spread vs Spread vs
Central Bank
Rate (5.50%)
3 months 1 year 2 years
5 years 5.877% 37.7bp
2 years 5.702%
20.2bp
1 year 5.669%
16.9bp
3 months 5.722%
22.2bp

Bahrain Credit Ratings

A credit rating is an assessment of the creditworthiness of a borrower (in general terms or with respect to a particular debt or financial obligation).

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Rating Agency Rating Outlook Last Update Action
Standard & Poor's B+ - 28 Nov 2023 outlook downgrade
Moody's Investors Service B2 - 22 Apr 2022 outlook upgrade
Fitch Ratings B+ - 15 Aug 2020 rating downgrade
DBRS - -

Bahrain Interest Rates

A bank rate is the interest rate at which a nation's central bank lends money to domestic banks, often in the form of very short-term loans.

Interest Rates Value
Central Bank Rate 5.50%

Bahrain Credit Default Swaps

The term credit default swap (CDS) refers to a financial derivative that allows an investor to swap or offset their credit risk with that of another investor. To swap the risk of default, the lender buys a CDS from another investor who agrees to reimburse the lender in the case the borrower defaults.

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Credit Default Swap CDS Value Var % 1W Var % 1M Var % 1Y Implied PD(*)
5 Years CDS 255.00 -3.77 % -10.53 % -47.42 % 4.25 %
(*) Implied probability of default, calculated on the hypothesis of a 40% recovery rate.
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Bahrain 10Y Bond Yield Spread

The Bahrain 10Y Government Bond has an estimated 6.169% yield.

A positive spread, marked by , means that the 10Y Bond Yield is higher than the corresponding foreign bond. Instead, a negative spread is marked by a green circle .

Click on the "Compare" button, for a report with the full comparison between the two countries, with all the available data.
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Bahrain 10Y vs Current Spread Chg 1M Chg 6M Chg 12M Compare
Countries
vs Japan 10Y 509.7 bp +35.7 bp -10.0 bp -90.5 bp
vs China 10Y 408.1 bp +50.5 bp +23.9 bp +6.1 bp
vs Germany 10Y 381.6 bp +40.5 bp +15.9 bp -31.0 bp
vs Spain 10Y 309.3 bp +41.2 bp +20.2 bp -3.7 bp
vs France 10Y 306.3 bp +39.1 bp -10.6 bp -50.3 bp
vs Canada 10Y 278.4 bp +34.0 bp +22.4 bp -23.4 bp
vs Italy 10Y 259.1 bp +41.1 bp +22.9 bp +23.0 bp
vs United States 10Y 176.8 bp +26.2 bp +1.8 bp -52.6 bp
vs United Kingdom 10Y 170.5 bp +13.9 bp -32.8 bp -85.9 bp
vs Australia 10Y 154.2 bp +21.7 bp -33.1 bp -70.8 bp
vs India 10Y -77.0 bp +48.0 bp +14.3 bp -20.1 bp
vs Brazil 10Y -670.3 bp +35.8 bp -124.1 bp -229.5 bp
vs Russia 10Y -996.8 bp +62.6 bp -198.3 bp -462.8 bp

Bahrain Government Bonds Prices

Price Simulation: bonds with a face value of 100, with different coupon rates.

The highlighted column refers to the zero coupon bond.
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Residual
Maturity
Yield Bond Price - with different Coupon Rates Fx
0% 1% 3% 5% 7% 9%
5 years 5.877% 75.16 79.39 87.84 96.29 104.75 113.20
2 years 5.702% 89.50 91.34 95.03 98.71 102.39 106.07
1 year 5.669% 94.64 95.58 97.47 99.37 101.26 103.15
Maturity Date 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
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