Australia Government Bonds - Yields Curve

COUNTRY • SUMMARY
AUSTRALIA

The Australia 10-Year Government Bond currently offers a yield of 4.614%. This yield reflects the return investors can expect if they hold the bond until maturity. Government bond yields are critical indicators of economic confidence and investor sentiment.

The yield spread between Australia 10-Year and 2-Year government bonds is 47 basis points (bp), reflecting the difference in yields between long-term and short-term debt.
Typically, long-term bonds carry higher yields than short-term ones.
Current observation: Normal Convexity in Long-Term vs Short-Term Maturities.

Australia Central Bank Rate stands at 4.35%, following the most recent adjustment in November 2023.

According to Standard & Poor's agency, the Australia credit rating is AAA.

The current quotation for Australia 5-Years Credit Default Swap is 12.08 basis points. Correspondingly, the implied probability of default is 0.20%.

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Australia Yield Curve

A Yield Curve is a graph that shows the relationship between interest rates (or yields) and different maturities of debt for a specific borrower, often government bonds. It typically plots yields on the y-axis and maturities on the x-axis, ranging from short-term to long-term bonds.

The shape of the yield curve gives investors insights into market expectations for interest rates, economic growth, and inflation. A normal yield curve, where long-term rates are higher than short-term, suggests economic growth, while an inverted curve, where short-term rates are higher, can indicate an upcoming recession.

Australia Yield Curve
Australia Government Bonds
22 November 2024

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Residual
Maturity
Annualized Yield Constant Maturity Zero Coupon Price Capital
Growth
of 1 Unit
Last
Update
Last Chg 1M Chg 6M Chg 12M Last Chg 1M Chg 6M Chg 12M
1 year 4.213% +5.6 bp -12.6 bp -21.2 bp 95.96 -0.05 % +0.13 % +0.21 % 1.042 22 Nov
2 years 4.144% +14.3 bp +7.1 bp -10.7 bp 92.20 -0.27 % -0.14 % +0.21 % 1.084 22 Nov
3 years 4.136% +17.8 bp +12.8 bp -5.1 bp 88.55 -0.52 % -0.37 % +0.15 % 1.129 22 Nov
4 years 4.166% +19.4 bp +15.9 bp -3.3 bp 84.94 -0.74 % -0.61 % +0.13 % 1.177 22 Nov
5 years 4.231% +17.6 bp +19.1 bp -0.1 bp 81.29 -0.84 % -0.90 % +0.01 % 1.230 22 Nov
6 years 4.341% +16.6 bp +23.9 bp +3.8 bp 77.49 -0.96 % -1.37 % -0.22 % 1.290 22 Nov
7 years 4.434% +16.3 bp +24.0 bp +5.0 bp 73.81 -1.09 % -1.60 % -0.34 % 1.354 22 Nov
8 years 4.525% +16.1 bp +26.0 bp +8.4 bp 70.18 -1.22 % -1.98 % -0.65 % 1.424 22 Nov
9 years 4.578% +16.4 bp +28.1 bp +8.9 bp 66.84 -1.40 % -2.39 % -0.76 % 1.496 22 Nov
10 years 4.614% +15.6 bp +27.4 bp +10.8 bp 63.69 -1.48 % -2.60 % -1.04 % 1.569 22 Nov
12 years 4.651% +15.7 bp +26.8 bp +8.9 bp 57.95 -1.80 % -3.03 % -1.02 % 1.725 22 Nov
15 years 4.803% +14.0 bp +25.8 bp +6.9 bp 49.48 -1.98 % -3.62 % -0.98 % 2.021 22 Nov
20 years 5.021% +5.5 bp +32.8 bp +22.4 bp 37.54 -1.03 % -6.06 % -4.19 % 2.663 22 Nov
30 years 5.033% +3.9 bp +36.7 bp +22.3 bp 22.92 -1.12 % -9.98 % -6.18 % 4.362 22 Nov
Last Update: 22 Nov 2024, 3:15 GMT+0

Australia Yield History

This table presents the historical values of the yield curve, with data points collected at the end of each year.

By analyzing these values over time, one can observe trends and shifts in economic sentiment and monetary policy that impact investor expectations about future interest rates and economic growth.

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Government Bonds Yield (%)
Spread (bp)
Period 1M 3M 6M 1Y 2Y 3Y 5Y 7Y 10Y 30Y 10Y - 2Y
Nov 2024 n.a. n.a. n.a. 4.213 4.144 4.136 4.231 4.434 4.614 5.033 47.0
Dec 2023 n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.965 3.720 3.614 3.639 3.808 3.959 4.292 23.9
Dec 2022 n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.351 3.420 3.506 3.693 3.879 4.053 4.360 63.3
Dec 2021 n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.294 0.381 0.922 1.338 1.531 1.670 2.405 128.9
Dec 2020 n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.035 0.063 0.101 0.329 0.602 0.973 1.973 91.0
Dec 2019 n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.921 0.919 0.903 0.989 1.139 1.374 1.992 45.5
Dec 2018 n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.944 1.893 1.820 1.925 2.118 2.317 2.803 42.4
Dec 2017 n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.817 1.974 2.135 2.345 2.533 2.639 3.347 66.5
Dec 2016 n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.735 1.893 2.015 2.320 2.557 2.760 n.a. 86.7
Dec 2015 n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.022 2.042 2.056 2.315 2.627 2.889 n.a. 84.7
Dec 2014 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.830 n.a. n.a.
Dec 2013 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 4.241 n.a. n.a.
Dec 2012 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.285 n.a. n.a.
Dec 2011 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.800 n.a. n.a.
Dec 2010 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 5.515 n.a. n.a.
Dec 2009 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 5.725 n.a. n.a.
Dec 2008 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.985 n.a. n.a.
Dec 2007 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 6.380 n.a. n.a.

Australia Yield Analysis

Normally, longer-duration interest rates are higher than short-duration. So, the yield curve normally slopes upward as duration increases. For this reason, the spread (i.e. the yield difference) between a longer and a shorter bond should be positive. If not, the yield curve can be flat or inverted.

The curve convexity is measured considering some key bond durations (usually 2 years and 10 years, but also other maturities).

Internal Spread on Key Maturities:
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2Y vs 1Y -6.9 bp Yield Curve is flat in Short-Term Maturities
5Y vs 2Y 8.7 bp Yield Curve is flat in Mid-Term vs Short-Term Maturities
10Y vs 2Y 47.0 bp Normal Convexity in Long-Term vs Short-Term Maturities
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Residual
Maturity
Yield Spread vs Spread vs
Central Bank
Rate (4.35%)
1 year 2 years 5 years 10 years
30 years 5.033% 68.3bp
10 years 4.614%
26.4bp
5 years 4.231%
-11.9bp
2 years 4.144%
-20.6bp
1 year 4.213%
-13.7bp

Australia Credit Ratings

A credit rating is an assessment of the creditworthiness of a borrower (in general terms or with respect to a particular debt or financial obligation).

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Rating Agency Rating Outlook Last Update Action
Standard & Poor's AAA - 7 Jun 2021 outlook upgrade
Moody's Investors Service Aaa - 20 Oct 2002 rating upgrade
Fitch Ratings AAA - 13 Oct 2021 outlook upgrade
DBRS AAA - 31 Jul 2014

Australia Interest Rates

A bank rate is the interest rate at which a nation's central bank lends money to domestic banks, often in the form of very short-term loans.

Interest Rates Value
Central Bank Rate 4.35%

Australia Credit Default Swaps

The term credit default swap (CDS) refers to a financial derivative that allows an investor to swap or offset their credit risk with that of another investor. To swap the risk of default, the lender buys a CDS from another investor who agrees to reimburse the lender in the case the borrower defaults.

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Credit Default Swap CDS Value Var % 1W Var % 1M Var % 1Y Implied PD(*)
5 Years CDS 12.08 0.00 % -0.08 % -36.98 % 0.20 %
(*) Implied probability of default, calculated on the hypothesis of a 40% recovery rate.
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Australia 10Y Bond Yield Spread

The Australia 10Y Government Bond has a 4.614% yield.

A positive spread, marked by , means that the 10Y Bond Yield is higher than the corresponding foreign bond. Instead, a negative spread is marked by a green circle .

Click on the values in "Current Spread" column, for the historical series of the spread.
Click on the "Compare" button, for a report with the full comparison between the two countries, with all the available data.
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Australia 10Y vs Current Spread Chg 1M Chg 6M Chg 12M Compare
Countries
vs Japan 10Y 352.8 bp +3.6 bp +18.6 bp -25.2 bp
vs China 10Y 253.4 bp +20.6 bp +51.7 bp +71.7 bp
vs Germany 10Y 228.7 bp +13.7 bp +48.5 bp +34.2 bp
vs Spain 10Y 156.2 bp +13.0 bp +52.1 bp +60.9 bp
vs France 10Y 150.1 bp +8.6 bp +19.2 bp +11.0 bp
vs Canada 10Y 115.8 bp -4.4 bp +44.0 bp +34.0 bp
vs Italy 10Y 105.5 bp +15.4 bp +54.5 bp +87.9 bp
vs United States 10Y 19.7 bp -5.1 bp +28.8 bp +10.0 bp
vs United Kingdom 10Y 17.2 bp -12.0 bp +5.9 bp -16.5 bp
vs India 10Y -233.7 bp +15.6 bp +32.0 bp +40.4 bp
vs Brazil 10Y -817.1 bp +12.2 bp -87.4 bp -162.6 bp
vs Russia 10Y -1167.9 bp +4.1 bp -181.9 bp -420.5 bp

Australia Government Bonds Prices

Price Simulation: bonds with a face value of 100, with different coupon rates.

The highlighted column refers to the zero coupon bond.
Click on for a forecast of the yield.
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Residual
Maturity
Yield Bond Price - with different Coupon Rates Fx
0% 1% 3% 5% 7% 9%
30 years 5.033% 22.92 38.24 68.87 99.49 130.12 160.75
20 years 5.021% 37.54 49.98 74.86 99.74 124.62 149.50
15 years 4.803% 49.48 60.00 81.03 102.07 123.11 144.15
12 years 4.651% 57.95 66.99 85.07 103.16 121.24 139.32
10 years 4.614% 63.69 71.56 87.30 103.04 118.77 134.51
9 years 4.578% 66.84 74.08 88.57 103.06 117.54 132.03
8 years 4.525% 70.18 76.77 89.95 103.13 116.31 129.49
7 years 4.434% 73.81 79.72 91.53 103.34 115.16 126.97
6 years 4.341% 77.49 82.68 93.05 103.42 113.79 124.15
5 years 4.231% 81.29 85.71 94.56 103.40 112.25 121.09
4 years 4.166% 84.94 88.55 95.78 103.02 110.25 117.48
3 years 4.136% 88.55 91.32 96.86 102.39 107.93 113.46
2 years 4.144% 92.20 94.08 97.85 101.61 105.38 109.14
1 year 4.213% 95.96 96.92 98.84 100.76 102.67 104.59
Maturity Date 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
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